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Leader (1850-1860), 29th January 1859, Edition 1 of 2, Page 147, Untitled Article

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      Months of their absence to take care of itself . The same remark applies in . a modified sense to men S instead of employing ^ the ^ recess to inform themselves of the wants and wishes of those they Profess to represent , spend the whole of that mtcwal in private b usiness or pleasure abroad , and then rush back at the commencement of the session to give t heir ignorant and reckless vote on the first narty division . . . Id . a recent article the Daily News commented severely on the conduct in this respect of Lord Bury who , having just returned from a sojourn of several months in Canada , told his constituents that hp was Quite unfit to tell them what he thought of

      Reform , as " his head had been too full of late qt other matters , " alluding to the railway speculations abroad with which he has been engrossed . How , then , can Lord Bury presume to-morrow or next day to meddle at TVestrninster with the mighty question which there awaits decision ? The thing is really a burlesque . But , as . our contemporary justly puts it , if middle-class constituencies will throw away their power by choosing such men for their members , . they have no right to complain . As a

      general rule it ought , we think , to be enacted that any member of Parliament remaining out of the kingdom for more than a given time in the course of the year should thereby vacate his seat .

      Untitled Article

      VITAL STATISTICS OF THE SOCIETY OF FRIENDS . . . We have been requested to insert a letter from Mr . Fox , and lie is fully and fairly entitled to compliance with the demand . That gentleman seems , however , to have entirely mistaken the aim and intention of our article of the 24 th ultimo . It was not our object or wish to deal harshly or severely with his paper , or we should certainly have availed ourselves of some circumstances connected with his

      treatment of the subject , winch we venture to assert are without precedent in the history of the Statistical Society . . In fact , with feelings of delicacy ^ and in consideration of Mr . Fqx ' s first appearance in the rooms of SU James ' s-square , we avoided even the mention of his name , and treated the question wholly as regarded the interests of the Statistical Society itsett . We viewed the proceedings of the institution as of grave public import , and of more or less interest to all the scientific bodies generally of the metropolis . Had it simply been a question of the skill with which Mr . Fox had handled his

      subject we should certainly never have employed pen and paper on the result of his labours . As , however , he now invites criticism , we ask the induigenco of our readers in making a few observations more in detail than our former remarks were . We can well understand the intense interest created by the . reading of any such paper as that submitted by Mr . Fox when the audience seeks for amusement only , and the best evidence of this is the splendid reception given to it by the Fellows of the Statistical at a very full meeting . We can well recollect that , more than a dozen years ago , an able and elaborate paper was read by the then great poorlaw magnate of Somerset House , Mr . Chadwick ,

      who has since been decorated for his labours , and the council for the time being , including the late Mr . Tookc , the greatest of all economists of the present century , and Mr . Fletcher , whose death was a severe blow to the Statistical , Society , permitted this very papor to bo impugned by the reading of a counter papor by a mere tyro in statistics at the following meoting , and -vye believo wo arc correct in saying that Mr . Chadwick never appeared in the sooioty as the author of a pnper since that date until last week , when ho read an interesting paper on " Competition for tho Field ; " in other words , the evils arising from competition by such as gus and lyator companies within given districts , instead of being limited to competition for the supply of tho districts .

      This is a simple statement of tho fatal change which has coma over the Council of l . ho Statistical Sooioty . When Mr . Toqko and Mr . Fletchor M-oro taking an active part in its a Hairs , they dared to question the mothods of inquiry followed by a government ofllqial of higher slul . us ami influence iu questions of publio health than cortmuly any one < yao who since his' abdication has attempted to sit upon his throno , but how wo find papers , . thoroughly dpvoid of originality iuid cyon of tho ( Irst principles of statistical investigation , not only pornuttcul to bo roiul but to bo rocoivod wilh favour . Mr . Chadwiok must have serious grounds of scientific

      complaint against the statistical tribunal sitting in Lichfield House . , Any bile reading , these two papers—that by Mr . Chadwick , whose name is a complete guarantee for laborious industry and earnestness of purpose , and the paper by Mr . Pox , who , we are told , is , in the estimation of his friends ; , a highly competent , pror fessional . medical man enjoying a most lucrative practice—will see that the first paper , able , clear , full of practical discrimination , endorsed by official sanction , was put entirely out of court by a counter paper which , as far as we have seen , has been only once recognised or quoted , and that by the British

      and Foreign Medical Review for July , 1844 , m not the most civil terms , in which they say : " Mr . Neison must have a singularly dull perception not to see that his own facts are as strongly corroborative of the views he attempts to controvert as facts of the kind can possibly be . " Compliments are all very well , and may be paid to young men even at the expense of their more experienced confreres , but it certainly cannot be permitted that papers shall be read with acclamation at the meeting of a society formed for the cultivation of that branch of studv to which the naDer relates , when in the

      preparation of which all true methods of investigation are ignored . It appears by the letter from Mr . Fox that we shall have an opportunity of seeing his paper in print , and we may then , perhaps , more fully expose the danger to statistical science from the methods of inquiry adopted by him receiving sanction by the society . In the mean time we shall illustrate our views by quoting one or two statements noted during the reading of the paper . We formerly said that , owing to rules of discipline in the Society of Friends , of every hundred marriages fifty-five take place under circumstances which deprive the persons marrying of future membership ,

      and they and their progeny pass from under observation , arid all that concerns births , deaths , and marriages ceases to berecorded in respect to them . This is a state of things which renders the Quaker community so abnormal that ordinary modes of comparing . the results of . its vital statistics . are entirely inapplicable arid can orily lead to erroneous conclusions . During the IS years , 1 S 3 S-55 , one marriage per annum took place amongst every 123 persons living in England and Wales , or , in other words , one out of every 62 of the population marries yearly . Now suppose that , as in the Society of Friends ,

      upwards of one-half of all these persons should cease to come under the observation of the Registrar-General , what would be the value of his annual reports ? And yet this is the precise position in which the data from which Mr . Fox deduced the greater part of his results . are placed . At the average period of marriage mortality is almost at its minimum , and fecundity at its maximum power ; what other results can be expected , therefore , as the legitimate consequence of abstracting

      the most vital portion of the population , than that tjio deaths should year after year acquire an increasing ratio over the births ? The persons subject to a low rate of mortality are withdrawn , from observation , and the births of the most prolific portion arc not recorded . It required no statistical inquiry or evidence to disclose that fact . It is an arithmetical necessity , and the results must be foreseen by every one . The following are the actual figures furnished by Mr . Fox .

      NUMBER OF 1 > I £ AXIIS TO 100 BIRTHS . 1800—9 ... Males 89 ... Females 110 1810—19 ... Ditto 94 ... Ditto 116 1820—29 ... Ditto 104 ... Ditto 126 1880—87 ... Ditto 106 ... Ditto 180 Had ho confined himself to that part of his subject to which ho alludes in tho second paragraph of his letter , wo should have been content to remain silent in rospoct to his communication—it was , in fact , tho only portion of his papor at all to be tolerated ; but instead of doing so tho greater part of tho thno of the meeting was oooupiccl by

      instituting comparisons for different periods of timo between tho ratios of births , deaths , and marriages amoii ^ tho Socioty of Fwcnds , and those which prevail in the country gonorally , and then another aot of comparisons , as alread y pointed out , of tho ratio of deaths to births , a still furthor set of tho ratio of births to marriages , and also auothor set showing tho ratios of caoh of those amongst males , tp tho results for fomalcs . All being Uusoiontiflo and unmeaning tests and expressions for any propor statistical purpose whatovor . As nlrottdy woro than ouco ropoatcd , the results advanced as pcoulmv to tho Society of Friends had no statistical peculiarity in thorn at all . they woro simply tho logiti . tt . Uc

      consequences , which might be predicated by any ordinary statistician , arising put of the deeessions- in the Quaker community . In our former article ^ in order to simplify the view then , taken of the question , we alluded to withdrawals owing to marriages against the rules of that bod y only , but Mr . Fox in his own letter makes bur objections to his mode of treatment of still greater weight and importance , for it appears that " other causes of separation fron * the society operate to a considerable extent , " placing the community in even a more abnormal condition , than we had assumed , and rendering any comparison with the country generally still mpre absurd . Going , ^ i . ' A . A '' & > 4 . m ' " ' * ba ' ' " . " ' _> ^ ' ' i '

      however , for the present , no further than our original view > and confining ourselves to the subject of marriages , it will be seen that the . , so-called peculiar results are only consistent arithmetical sequences when separations from the society are allowed for . Taking 18 , 500 as the average Quaker population of the ten years 1840-9 , and the number of marriages the same as in the general community , that is , one in every 123 of the people , it will give 1500 marriages for the whole decennium ; but as 55 per cent , of these would be contracted against the rules of the body , the number of regular Tnnrriflcrps maardeA would be onlv 675 . and accordlllcllllclgCO louuiutu nyiuu * j \ s vjs ** j w »¦ ^ ****** *» www * % * .

      . , ingly Mr . Fox gives the actual number within the same period at 659 , and in like manner may nearly all his other results be deduced from the normal Conditions of the country . Mr . Fox . may rely on ife that he will act wisely bj suppressing the whole of his paper , except that small portion of it referred to in the second paragraph of "his letter . As a specimen of the general looseness of the manner of inquiry followed in it , one incident may be mentioned . It became necessary to employ various tests to determine the amount of Quaker population , and the aggregate having been variously estimated for 1851 at somewhat under 16 , 000 , it was

      further stated by the author in corroboration , that on the census Sunday upwards of 14 , 000 attended their places of worship . At the conclusion of the reading of the paper , some one in the meeting made a difficulty-. about the / possibility of so many being able to attend meeting , for , if children under five years of age , the infirm and invalided , be held as absent , a very large number beyond the Quaker population must have attended meeting , and to the surprise of every one , the reply wai , " Oh ! about oue-Jialf of : il . . n . „ . „ __ -.. .- » _ — . '« a ' 4 . 4- «» - « j-3 v . w n * 4-1 » «¦» V \ I < s * *** % (?¦ r \ T ¦ xvTrwc * lit t \ r \ £ >* . those attending the places or worship

      De-_ persons louging to the Society of Friends have riot been admitted members , and the census of course included all these . " Now this is certainly not the fashion in which papers fitting to be reaa at the Statistical Society should be got up , and it behoves the council to be more solicitous not only on the subjects of the papers themselves , but also , more particularly that the methods of investigation arid inquiry aresuch as are sanctioned by the recent advances made in statisticaLscience .

      ( To the Editor of the Lead , er . ) Sir ,- —My attention has only recently been called to au article in your number of the 24 th of December , headed " The Statistical Society . " It is not my place to consider whether that Society is still in its prime , or sinking into premature old age surrounded by a vigorous * offspring ; nor does our excellent friend , toe Registrar-General , who tells us so many home truths , need any defence from me ; but as you have misunderstood and . misrepresented a paper which I bad tho privilege of reading before the Society , you must in fairness admit my explanation .

      That any estimate of mortality is almost valueless that does not take into account the proportion of individuals living at each age , is no new discovery . It has been acted on for many years in forming statistical tables . The mortality for each ago in England and Wales , given in the Ninth Annual Report , which I have assumed as my standard of comparison , is calculated entirely according to this principle . The deaths at each , afio in seven years ,. 1838 to 1844 , are compared with the

      living of each age at tho middle of tho ponad , vis . at the census of 1811 . So in tho table of the mortality of tho Socioty of Friends , which forms part of my paper , the deaths iu each ago in ton years , 1842 to 1852 , « ro compared with tUo onumeratod numbers living of each ago at tho middle of tho period . Tho two sots of result aro comparable . To compare the total mortalities , of tho tiro populations—that of tho Socioty of Friends and that of England and Wnlos—a further adjustment is necessary—which I havo pointed out iu my papor .

      The assumption that an enumeration at tho middla of a period ropresonts , both in its total and in the rolativo proportion of tho agot » , tho mean population of that period , in quite a logitimato one ; provided , first , that the period bo not too long a one ; secondly , that tho population bo Hnlncionlly largo to vendor oasuul lluqtuationa unimportant ; and thirdly , that no now sot of social circumstances havo boon dovelopod to mnlso ft

      Untitled Article

      ism . 462 . Janttabx 29 , 1859 . 1 THE li ^ EADEB . 147 , ' ' . ' ' 7 ¦ ' — —^*—m ^ . *^**^^^** " ^^^^ " ^*^*^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^ ' - ¦ ^^^»**^^^^ . ^ M ^*^^ fc ^^ iM ^ H ^ i ^^^^ fc ^^^^^^^^^ B ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ i ^^^^ l ^^^^ l ^^^ l ^^^ M ^^^^^^^^^^^^ M ^^ M ^ M ^^^ M ^^*^^^*^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ . . ^ .

  • Citation
    • Leader (1850-1860), Jan. 29, 1859, page 147, in the Nineteenth-Century Serials Edition (2008; 2018) ncse-os.kdl.kcl.ac.uk/periodicals/l/issues/vm2-ncseproduct2279/page/19/